The swine flu vaccine and Guillain-Barre syndrome

The swine flu vaccine and Guillain-Barre syndrome

Report Number
546
Authors
D.A. Freedman and P.B. Stark
Citation
in Surveys on Solution Methods for Inverse Problems, Colton, D.,
Abstract

Epidemiologic methods were developed to prove general causation: identifying exposures that increase the risk of particular diseases. Courts often are more interested in specific causation: on balance of probabilities, was the plaintiff's disease caused by exposure to the agent in question? Some authorities have suggested that a relative risk greater than 2.0 meets the standard of proof for specific causation. Such a definite criterion is appealing, but there are difficulties. Bias and confounding are familiar problems; individual differences must be considered too. The issues are explored in the context of the swine flu vaccine and Guillain-Barre syndrome.

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