Seminar 217, Risk Management: Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Streaky Alternatives to Random Bernoulli Sequences (Online)

Seminar 217, Risk Management: Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Streaky Alternatives to Random Bernoulli Sequences (Online)

Feb 9, 2021, 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM | Online | Happening As Scheduled
David Ritzwoller, Stanford University (Speaker)

ABSTRACT: We study a class of permutation tests of the randomness of a collection of Bernoulli sequences and their application to analyses of the human tendency to perceive streaks of consecutive successes as overly representative of positive dependence - the hot hand fallacy. In particular, we study permutation tests of the null hypothesis of randomness (i.e., that trials are i.i.d.) based on...