Adrián González-Casanova

Adrian Gonzalez Casanova

Adrián González-Casanova

Neyman Visiting Assistant Professor
Office / Location
Office Hours
TU 14-15
Research Expertise and Interests

I'm interested in Probability Theory and its applications in Theoretical Biology, including modelling, simulation and data-driven approaches.

My research primarily focuses on studying Interacting Particle Systems, Stochastic Duality, Coalescent Processes, Seed-Bank Models (Stochastic Delay Differential Equations), and the modeling of Experimental Evolution.

Currently, I'm exploring various areas, including:

  • Biological Latency and how it shapes the fate of competing populations
  • Stochastic Duality and its relationship to Exchangeability and Intertwining 
  • Lookdown Representations and the propagation of exchangeability
  • Griffiths representations of the generators of a Levy Diffusion
  • Continuous State Branching Processes and generalised Coalescent Processes.
  • Experimental Evolution: from Data-Driven Mathematical Modeling to experimental design
  • Antibiotic Resistance: Through the Lens of Population Genetics
  • Game Theory:  Bridging Economics and Evolution
  • Public Health: Utilizing Individual-Based Models to Assess Policy Impact, such as the Risk of Cardiac Failure in Individuals with HIV
  • Interacting Particle Systems: including the Simple Exclusion Process and the Contact Process 
  • Branching Fractional Brownian Process: Constructed via the Seed Bank Random Graph approach



Current and former group members


  1.  Veronica Miro Pina (2018-2020, Co-supervised with Arno Siri Jegousse)

Graduate Students

  1.  Lizbeth Peñaloza (2019-2022, Ph.D. Co-supervised with Arno Siri Jegousse)
  2.  Nils Hansen (2019-, Ph.D. Co-supervised with Maite Wilke Berenguer)
  3.  Imanol Nuñez (2023-, Ph. D. Co-supervised with Jose Luis Perez)


  • Eneas Aguirre-von-Wobeser (CIAD, Mexico)
  • Ellen Baake (Bielefeld, Germany)
  • Airam Blancas (ITAM, Mexico)
  • Jochen Blath (Frankfurt, Germany)
  • Florin Boenkost (Vienna, Austria)
  • Eugenio Buzzoni (Deutsche Bank, Germany)
  • María Emilia Caballero (UNAM, Mexico)
  • Fernando Cordero (Bielefeld, Germany)
  • Bjarki Eldon (Museum of Natural History, Germany)
  • Guadalupe Espín (UNAM, Mexico)
  • Simone Floreani (University of Oxford, England)
  • Maria Clara Fittipaldi (UNAM, Mexico)
  • Inés González-Casanova (University of Indiana, USA)
  • Jan Lukas Igelbrink (Frankfurt, Germany)
  • Noemi Kurt (Frankfurt, Germany)
  • Julio Ernesto Nava (University of Oxford, England)
  • Juan Carlos Pardo (CIMAT, UNAM)
  • José Luis Pérez (CIMAT, UNAM)
  • Lizbeth Peñaloza (Universidad del Mar, Mexico)
  • Rafael Peña-Miller (UNAM, Mexico)
  • Cornelia Pokalyuk (Lübeck, Germany)
  • Sebastian Hummel (University of California at Berkeley)
  • Sebastian Probst
  • Sandra Palau (UNAM, Mexico)
  • Emannuel Schertzer (Vienna, Austria)
  • Jason Schweinsberg (University of California at San Diego)
  • Luis Servín-González (UNAM, Mexico)
  • Arno Siri-Jégousse (UNAM, Mexico)
  • Charline Smadi (Grenoble, France)
  • Gloria  Soberón-Chávez (UNAM, Mexico)
  • Dario Spanò (University of Warwick, England)
  • András Tóbiás (Budapest, Hungary)
  • Daniel Valesin (University of Warwick, England)
  • Anton Wakolbinger (Frankfurt, Germany)
  • Maite Wilke-Berenguer (Humboldt University of Berlin, Germany)
  • Linglong Yuan (University of Liverpool, England)


Select Publications

Publications in press

1. Scaling limit of an adaptive contact process, A. Gonz alez Casanova, A. Tobias,  D. Valesin. arXiv:2207.03455 (accepted at the Annals of Probability)

2. The ratio of two general continuous-state branching processes with immigration, and its relation to coalescent theory M. E. Caballero, A. Gonzalez Casanova, J.L. P erez. arXiv:2010.00742 (accepted at the Annals of Applied Probability)

3. Seed bank Cannings Graphs: How dormancy smoothes random genetic drift. A. Gonzalez Casanova, L. Peñaloza, A. Siri-Jegousse. arXiv:2210.05819 (accepted at ALEA)


Selected papers in Probability

Lambda-coalescents arising in populations with dormancy. F. Cordero, A. Gonzalez Casanova, J. Schweinsberg, M. Wilke-Berenguer. (Electronic Journal of Probability 2022).

 The Symmetric Coalescent and Wright-Fisher models with bottlenecks, A. Gonzalez Casanova, V. Miro Pina, A. Siri-Jegousse. (Annals of Applied Probability 2022).

Particle systems with coordination. A. Gonzalez Casanova. N. Kurt, A. Tobias. (ALEA 2021)

Haldane's formula in Cannings models: The case of moderately weak selection. F. Boenkost, A. Gonzalez Casanova, C. Pokalyuk, A. Wakolbinger. (Electronic Journal of Probability 2021)

The seed bank coalescent with simultaneous switching. J. Blath, A. Gonzalez Casanova, N. Kurt, M. Wilke-Berenguer. (Electronic Journal of Probability 2020)

Duality and Fixation in  Xi-Wright-Fisher processes with frequency-dependent selection. A. Gonzalez Casanova, D. Spano. (The Annals of Applied Probability 2018)

An individual based Model for the Lenski experiment, and the deceleration of the relative  fitness. A. Gonzalez Casanova, N. Kurt, A. Wakolbinger and L.Yuan. (Stochastic Processes and their Applications 2016)  Winner of the Ito Prize 2017.

A new coalescent for seed-bank models. J. Blath, A. Gonzalez Casanova, N. Kurt and M. Wilke-Berenguer. (The Annals of Applied Probability 2016)


Selected papers in Applied Mathematics (modeling, simulation and data-driven projects)

Plasmid stability in fluctuating environments: population genetics of multi-copy plasmids. J. Carlos R. Hernandez-Beltran, Veronica Miro Pina, Arno Siri-Jegousse, Sandra Palau, Rafael Peña-Miller, A. Gonzalez Casanova. (Ecology and Evolution 2023)

The role of connectivity on COVID-19 preventive approaches. V. Miro Pina, J. Nava-Trejo, A. Tobias, E. Nzabarushimana, A. Gonzalez Casanova, I. Gonzalez-Casanova. 17(9). (PLOS ONE 2022)

The Wright-Fisher model with efficiency. A. Gonzalez Casanova, V. Miro Pina, J. C. Pardo. (Theoretical Population Biology 2020)

Modelling and simulating Lenski's long-term evolution experiment. E, Baake, A. Gonzalez Casanova, S. Probst, A. Wakolbinger. (Theoretical Population Biology 2019)  Winner of the Feldman Prize 2022.

Genetic variability under the seed-bank coalescent. J. Blath, B. Eldon, A. Gonzalez Casanova, N. Kurt and M. Wilke-Berenguer. (Genetics 2015)